After the Learjet crash in Florida, theories started flying immediately. Missile attacks. Air defenses around Mar-a-Lago. People were trying to make sense of what had just happened. Soon after, my mentions and DMs started blowing up asking me what we could see in God’s Eye View.
So I pulled the public data together to figure out what we could actually establish by reconstructing the flight in 3D — fusing together flight tracking, weather radar, ATC audio and precisely geolocated bystander footage.
Across Instagram, TikTok and YouTube, these replays have now passed 24 million views. You can watch the full reconstruction below.
Please note: the ATC audio is distressing. Viewer discretion advised.
Sequence of events
Just over a minute before it crashed, this Learjet was cruising at thirty-five thousand feet. Seven miles above Palm Beach County. It had left Austin, Texas, for the Bahamas, with nine people on board.
Two hours in, the flight was headed straight into a line of thunderstorms.
What we know so far
Here’s what we know as of November 5, from public data and two NTSB briefings:
~35,000 ft to impact in ~78 seconds
Radar shows it flew into a string of thunderstorms
Crew had reported ice and turbulence and asked to climb. Then came a mayday, and a report of an overspeed.
All nine aboard died. One person on the ground was injured.
The elevator is the tail surface that controls pitch: nose up, nose down. Investigators found most of the left one in three pieces, 1.3 to 3.8 miles from the crash site. It came off before impact, according to the NTSB. They haven’t yet worked out whether it caused the dive or broke off as a result of it.
Weather at altitude is a key focus of the investigation, but the official cause hasn’t been determined.
If you have additional video or photos of the crash, please send them to the NTSB at witness@ntsb.gov.
A personal note
As my subscribers know, I make a lot of these 4D reconstructions using real world data — but this is the most visceral and gut wrenching thing I’ve heard in a long time. Something about hearing their voices, with fragments of a prayer in the background, made this feel personal in a way other events haven’t.
It’s weird what happens when you spend hours in a reconstruction. I never knew them but I feel like I was with them all in their final moments. And reading the comments, I know I’m far from the only one.
-- Bilawal
Good job and thank you for this. Flutter and icing on tail high horizontal stabilizer is well known and attempts at training and education especially for this aircraft have been in play for many years.